The Establishment is having an optimism reshuffle

All change at the BBC, the FT and the Sunday Times

For me, there have been two notable cultural trends of the last three years in the West. First, a howling negativity emanating from what one might describe as the bourgeois intelligentsia; and second, the traditional Establishment being stuck like rabbits in the headlights, panicking and not knowing what to do.

One can blame this on Brexit and the election of Donald Trump or Greta Thunberg. But it goes much deeper than individuals and traces its roots to the financial crisis, the rise of social media and too many highly indebted people at university, to name a few.

Is all this suddenly changing?

Pessimism is so 2019

Daniel Hannan, the retiring Conservative MEP and Telegraph columnist, quoted the historian Lord Macaulay the other day at his leaving-do. “On what principle is it that with nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us?” Pessimism is not new, but progress is the way to bet.

I was struck also by an interview on the BBC Radio 4 Today programme this morning with Professor Sophie Scott, director of the Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience at University College London and Professor Julia Lohmann, a Finnish academic who also runs a design practice called the Department of Seaweed, which develops emissions and toxin absorbing seaweed products.

Professor Scott reminded us all that humankind are social primates, and “People change more frequently if you engage them in a positive way. Our social interactions matter.” You can listen here, at 2hr 55 mins (just after a piece on the perils of Coronavirus) LINK

Adam Smith

This should not be a surprise to followers of Adam Smith, whose Theory of Moral Sentiments is built upon exactly that insight. Man is essentially a collaborative animal and “we shudder and tremble” at what “our brother feels upon the rack”. Negativity and hysteria are usually overdone and unhelpful, if not psychologically damaging, and certainly harm relationships and the ability to co-operate.

Democratic societies, which are necessarily discursive, do not usually run off cliffs. Occasionally, one has a calamitous 1914 cliff-running situation, but even those just serve to reinforce social dynamics of positive behaviour and spontaneous organisation. Usually, in a dynamic society, if we see a threat or challenge we collectively organise to do something about it, after first making a mess and fuss over things.

All change

Which leads us to my next observation. After three years of stasis, the Establishment is having a major reshuffle. In the space of a few days we have a new editor of the Financial Times, a new editor of the Sunday Times, a search for a new BBC director general and for the CEO of Sainsbury’s and for a director at the Office of Budget Responsibility, and a new interim head of the Financial Conduct Authority. Expect this to gain further momentum with the imminent Cabinet reshuffle and a new Labour leader.

What will be the collective ethos of these new leaders? Will they wag their fingers disapprovingly at us and teach us we are all doomed due to the climate emergency and a plague from China? Or embrace a more optimistic, practical style and philosophy? Optimism v Pessimism currently is a great dividing line in society but empirical observation suggests that, in the long term, sensible people should be cautiously optimistic.